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>正文数据告诉你：梅西究竟厉害在哪里？来源：虎嗅网 &&&&
&&&& 日&&&&&&& 关键词：梅西,大数据,世界杯摘要：内特·西尔弗（Nate Silver）是个天才数据分析师，他创办的一个使用统计数据来分析所有现象的新闻网站FiveThirtyEight，近日在彻底分析了有关里奥内尔·梅西这个被认为是当今世界NO.1的足球运动员的各种数据后发现，梅西身上兼具通常不可能并存的要素，简直是个奇迹般的球员。正文内特·西尔弗（Nate Silver）是个天才数据分析师，曾经在2012年美国总统大选中准确预测了50个州的选举结果，并为了预测棒球选手的成绩而开发了统计工具PECOTA。就是这个内特·西尔弗，新创办了一个使用统计数据来分析所有现象的新闻网站FiveThirtyEight。近日，该网站的体育数据分析师兼作家Benjamin Morris，在彻底分析了有关里奥内尔·梅西这个被认为是当今世界NO.1的足球运动员的各种数据后发现，梅西身上兼具通常不可能并存的要素，简直是个奇迹般的球员。梅西成为职业球员后，就一直效力于巴塞罗那足球俱乐部（以下简称“巴萨”）和阿根廷国家队，至今出战了515场比赛，共踢进了396粒进球，四次赢得授予年度最优秀足球运动员的“金球奖”（2010年起国际足联世界足球先生和金球奖合并为“国际足联金球奖”）。即使现正在进行中的2014年巴西世界杯，他在小组赛的所有三场比赛中都有进球，把阿根廷国家队带进了淘汰赛阶段。根据FiveThirtyEight网站的分析，小组赛结束时阿根廷世界杯夺冠的概率是16%，该数值仅次于东道主巴西队。而在淘汰赛第一场比赛结束后的现在，阿根廷队的夺冠概率已上升到了20%。足球运动中，国家队每年只是集训几次大家在一起踢球，这和一年之中队员基本固定的俱乐部队比起来，国家队是个临时拼凑起来的集体这种感觉更强烈。因此，很自然地，很难看到同一球员在国家队里和在俱乐部里有相同的表现。有人说梅西“是因为有巴萨的一流队友才表现那么活跃”，有人嘲讽以梅西为中心的战术是“梅西系统”，更因为在赛季他在俱乐部队未能获得任何头衔，而且进球数也比上个赛季有所下降，赛季进球数被对手C罗赶超，也没能获得今年的“金球奖”，因此对他的批评声势越来越大。把这样的梅西的所有相关数据收集起来进行彻底分析的，是体育数据分析师Benjamin。他从OPTA（Opta Sports是一家总部位于英国伦敦的体育数据提供商）提供的2010年世界杯以来22904场正式比赛的数据中，研究了梅西和其他16574名足球运动员与足球相关的所有数据。结果发现，梅西身上兼具通常在一人身上不可能同时并存的多种因素。比如，无论在罚球区内还是区外，他的射门成功率都很高；无论是轻推进球还是远射这两者都是世界顶级水平；在得到其他球员的助攻而有很多进球的同时，自己独立实现的进球数和射门成功率都居世界首位。简直可以说是全能球员。进球&2010年世界杯以来，梅西在正式比赛中踢进了291个进球和201次助攻。分析同一时期举行的22904场比赛的数据，用图表表示16574名球员的进球数（纵轴）和助攻数（横轴），就形成如下图表，很容易看出梅西和对手C罗的成绩高居榜首。&和篮球、棒球等其他体育运动比起来，足球很难进球得分，因此射门成功率高是非常重要的。下面这个图表中纵轴表示射门进球的概率（即射门成功率），横轴则表示一场比赛平均射门次数。图表中显示了866名参加50场以上比赛且平均每场有一次以上射门的球员的数据。从中可看出，梅西的射门成功率高居第9位，和其他有大量进球的球员相比其射门具有压倒性的高效率。而且，有大量进球且射门成功率比梅西高的，只有马里奥·戈麦斯（德国）一人而已。射门能够成功进球，和很多因素有关，比如射门的角度、与球门的距离、眼前是否有对方球员等等。因此，通过计算GAA（goals above acerage）即表示“实际进球数”和“可能要进球的场景”之间的差距，把射门数、预测的射门成功率和GAA列在一起就形成如下图表。此表列举了2010年以来比赛中射门次数前20名球员的数据，GAA数值越大表明“被浪费的射门机会越少”。梅西的GAA独占鳌头，可看出他浪费的射门机会非常之少。以下分别是全部球员平均、梅西以及C罗在不同射门区域的射门成功率。从图中，梅西能在多大范围内进行射门、有多高的射门成功率，都一目了然。下表则是以罚球区外的进球数为纵轴，以射门数为横轴。根据图表，梅西在罚球区外的射门次数是173次，进球21个，射门次数和进球数都属世界顶级水准。相对的，C罗虽然在罚球区外的射门次数约是梅西的2倍，但进球数低于梅西，射门成功率比梅西低多了。本届世界杯小组赛阿根廷对伊朗，梅西的制胜进球正好是从罚球区外的一脚射门，距离球门大约约26.5米的位置。确实，从球门视角的镜头看，容易给人一种感觉“梅西老在这个位置进球……”。独立实现的射门在足球中分两种场景：接队友传球射门和自己运球射门。虽然梅西不时被人批评“踢球太独”，个人持球射门次数占其全部射门次数的44%，该数值低于全部球员的平均值（46%）。但是，梅西单独拿球射门时的射门成功率是23%，远高于全部球员的平均值（5%）。有可能是因为频繁出现他个人拿球独立得分的情况，所以容易被人误解“踢球太独”吧。下面这张图表中，纵轴表示无助攻情况下的射门成功率，横轴表示有助攻情况下的射门成功率。位于红线上方区域的是独立射门成功率高的球员，位于红线下方区域的是在有助攻情况下射门成功率高的球员。另外，梅西射门的时候是用哪只脚踢皮球的呢，如下所示：? & 78%是左脚射门，射门成功率为23%；? &右脚的射门成功率也是23%；? &头球攻门的成功率是10～13%；? &射门的8%是“轻推”（全体球员平均6%），射门成功率是27%，GAA 是.026（全体球员平均是-.055）? &射门的5%是“强力抽射”（全体球员平均为8%），射门成功率是36%，GAA 是.251（全体球员平均.051）? &射门的12%是带旋转的（全体球员平均为10%），射门成功率为31%(全体球员平均为8%),GAA为.202（全体球员平均为.020）? &点球（PK）成功率为86%（全体球员平均为77%）? &直接任意球成功率为8%（全体球员平均为5%），GAA 为.021在2014年世界杯与尼日利亚队的比赛中，梅西就有直接任意球进球得分，仍记忆犹新吧。不过，C罗的点球成功率为93%，这一点优于梅西。为了能够成功完成独立射门，很多时候需要与对方防守球员一对一对抗。以下图表以一场比赛中一对一对抗的获胜率为纵轴，以形成一对一局面的次数为横轴。可以看出，梅西通过运球盘带过人的次数比其他人多多了，而且胜率超50%，这个数字简直超出常理。Benjamin说，“这张图表最能体现梅西的技术和球风”。和梅西那样能够在一对一对抗中挑战对方球员的，只有乌拉圭队的苏亚雷斯。C罗平均一场比赛只有不到5次一对一对抗的情形，胜率约40%。Benjamin 分析说，这种差距成为他和梅西的巨大区别。另外，梅西的射门成功率比 C 罗高，这也和C罗在一对一对抗中失败的概率比梅西更高有着某种程度的关联。传球和助攻因为梅西那种个人独自带球射门的风格经常被用数据表现出来，有人就会认为“梅西就是踢球比较独”。又因为从数据可知梅西的射门技术非常出众，可能有人会认为梅西的“传球水平一般”。但，梅西轻松超越了人们的这些想象。除了梅西和 C罗之外，无人能够在每场比赛中的进球和助攻两方面都被寄以如此多的期待。以下这张图表，以每场比赛的助攻次数为纵轴，以进球数为横轴。从中可看出，梅西不仅保持了最高的进球率，其助攻次数也仅次于德国队的厄齐尔和法国队的里贝里。可是，因为巴萨是世界顶级的传球出色的球队，有人可能就会怀疑，“难道不是因为身处这样一个特色的球队里，他的助攻次数才多吗？”下面这张表显示了在巴萨和梅西一样踢（或曾经踢）同样前锋位置的球员的传球次数、传球成功率、直传球以及直传球成功率。虽然直传球被对方球员抢断的可能性高，但由于能够快速向对方球门方向传球，这是制造射门机会所必需的。与巴萨同一位置的其他球员相比，梅西的直传球率特别高，而且成功率也非常高。这一点，与其他球队的球员相比也算是非常多的。同样是前锋，梅西的直传球次数之多无人可比，紧随其后的是罗马队的托蒂（2200次）和曼联队的鲁尼（1800次）。下面这张图表中，横轴表示传球成功率，圆点的大小表示长传的次数。在同样次数的长传中，梅西的长传成功率（54%）高于任何一个其他前锋。C罗的长传成功率是60%，虽然高于梅西，但其长传次数只有41次，远不及梅西的81次。而且，看下面这张图，以尝试直塞球的次数为横轴，以直塞球经过点的次数为纵轴，可以看出，比起其他前锋，梅西参与直塞球的情况非常多。下面这张表的纵轴表示进球数，横轴则表示一场比赛中从半场线到前场进攻区域的直传球次数。这些传球大多数是助攻或助攻失败的传球。梅西在对方半场里直传球数明显多于其他前锋，可以预想定能制造更多的机会。触球为了研究梅西对于球队究竟能起到多大的影响和作用，Benjamin比较了梅西所在的巴萨和没有梅西的西班牙国家队。为什么比较这两支球队呢？是因为这两支球队都具有通过细腻的传球配合推进比赛的特征，而且西班牙队里还有很多是巴萨球员。2010年，西班牙国家队夺得了世界杯冠军。而2014年的世界杯上，西班牙是最早一支在小组赛中被淘汰出局的队伍。这支西班牙队，在2010年世界杯的7场比赛中进了8个球，而在小组赛阶段就被淘汰的2014年世界杯的3场比赛进了4个球，也就是说每场比赛平均进了1.2个球。而与之相对的是，在对于足球俱乐部球队来说是最高水平赛事的欧洲冠军联赛中，巴萨在到赛季的成绩是，47场比赛中进球104个，平均每场比赛2.2个进球。进球数比没有梅西的西班牙国家队多多了。把国家队和俱乐部队进行比较可能多少有点欠公平，但西班牙队和巴萨的比赛风格非常相似，大的区别只在于“梅西是否在打前锋”。实际上，除了点球和定位球之外，巴萨的射门有48%都是梅西的射门或是因他向队友传球助攻导致的射门。把梅西的进球数和因梅西助攻的进球数加在一起，那么能大约占到巴萨所有进球数的60%。而且，梅西在巴萨的射门成功率是22.1%，队友因梅西助攻的射门成功率为18.1%（没有梅西助攻的射门成功率是12.5%）。单看巴萨的情况，就能看出有没有梅西是有很大差别的。从下面这张图表中可以看出，出场100场比赛以上的足球运动员对于其所属的俱乐部球队的射门成功率和助攻成功率会产生什么样的影响。比如 C罗，他要是上场的话，球队的射门成功率能提高0.6%，助攻成功率提高2%。另外，下图则表示各位球员对于球队的进攻能产生多大的附加值。在图表中央黑线上方的球员，是能够对球队产生正面附加价值的球员。综合整理与球队控球密切相关的有益行为（进球或助攻）和有害行为（失误或回传），把每场比赛有15次以上这些行为（横轴）的球员进行排列，形成如下图表。纵轴表示有益行为的比例。最后，关于梅西的防守能力。梅西虽然是个身高只有1.69米的小个子球员，但即使比起大块头的前锋来，他的防守也没有问题。以飞铲抢球、抢断传球、破坏射门等与防守相关的行为为纵轴，以进球等进攻性行为为横轴制作图表会发现，即使比起其他大个子前锋，梅西的防守行为并不算少。只是，与巴萨其他队友的数字相比，梅西有关防守行为的数字相当地少，其他方面也能散见“他不去争抢势均力敌的高球”等缺点。结论Benjamin 在彻底研究分析了与梅西相关的所有数据后说，“在2014年世界杯上，梅西此前存在的‘在巴萨的表现和在阿根廷国家队的表现的落差问题’几乎消失了”。但是，与在巴萨时梅西的 GAA 为0.262相比，他在阿根廷国家队里只有0.199，这个数值有点儿低。Benjamin 说，考虑到梅西在两支球队中所起作用的差异，其实可以看做是两个完全不同的球员。不过，考虑到2014年金球奖得主 C罗的 GAA 不过是.175，或可以总结，梅西在国家队里也非常有可能成为世界第一的球员。相关阅读：··················相关留言：·comment3, ,
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