Consider a deep recession hits the world economy.Consider a deep recession hits the world economy.a.Explain whether it changes short-run aggregate supply,long-run aggregate supply,aggregate demand or some combination of them.b.Starting from a positio_百度作业帮
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Consider a deep recession hits the world economy.Consider a deep recession hits the world economy.a.Explain whether it changes short-run aggregate supply,long-run aggregate supply,aggregate demand or some combination of them.b.Starting from a positio
Consider a deep recession hits the world economy.Consider a deep recession hits the world economy.a.Explain whether it changes short-run aggregate supply,long-run aggregate supply,aggregate demand or some combination of them.b.Starting from a position of long-run equilibrium,show the short run and long run adjustment to the new equilibrium.
考虑到一个很严重的衰退对世界经济的影响,回答一下问题A. 解释 这个会不会改变短期的总共供给,长期总共的供给,总共的需求 或者是他们中的几个的结合B.从一个长期的平衡点开始,演示一下从短期和长期怎么调节到一个新的挺横点. 哈哈 学经济的呀 好怀念ISSUU - Eco_Weekly_考研特刊 by yue cao
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&2006-, All rights reserved.From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Oil depletion is the decline in oil production of a well, , or geographic area. The
makes predictions of production rates based on prior discovery rates and anticipated production rates.
predict that the production curves of non-renewing resources approximate a . Thus, according to this theory, when the
is passed, production rates enter an irreversible decline.
predicted in 2006 that world consumption of oil will increase to 98.3 million barrels per day (15,630,000 m3/d) (mbd) in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day in 2030. With 2009 world oil consumption at 84.4 mbd, reaching the projected 2015 level of consumption would represent an average annual increase between 2009 and 2015 of 2.7% per year.
World proved reserves of crude oil,
Ratio of world proved oil reserves to production,
Main article:
The 's natural oil supply is fixed because petroleum is
far too slowly to be replaced at the rate at which it is being extracted. Over many millions of years, , , and other plant and animal matter became buried in sediments on the ocean floor. When conditions were right – a lack of oxygen for decomposition, and sufficient depth and temperature of burial – these organic remains were converted into petroleum compounds, while the sediment accompanying them was converted into sandstone, siltstone, and other porous sedimentary rock. When capped by impermeable rocks such as shale, salt, or igneous intrusions, they formed the petroleum reservoirs which are exploited today.
Main article:
For the short and medium-term, oil production decline occurs in a predictable manner based on geological circumstances, governmental policies, and engineering practices. The shape of the decline curve varies depending upon whether one considers a well, a field, or a set of fields. In the longer term, technological developments have defied some of the predictions.
Theoretical oil production curve for a well with exponential decline
An individual oil well usually produces at its maximum rate at t the production rate eventually declines to a point at which it no longer . The shape of the decline curve depends on the oil reservoir and the reservoir drive mechanism. Wells in water-drive and gas-cap drive reservoirs often produce at a near constant rate until the encroaching water or expanding gas cap reaches the well, causing a sudden decline in oil production. Wells in gas solution drive and oil expansion drive reservoirs have exponential or hyperbolic declines: rapid declines at first, then leveling off.
The shape of production curve of an oil well can also be affected by a number of nongeologic factors:
Well may be restricted by choice by lack of
or government . This decreases the rate of decline, but will not change the well's total production significantly.
(fracking) or
may be used to cause a sharp spike in production, and may increase the recoverable reserves of a given well.
The field may undergo a secondary or
project, discussed in the next section.
Individual oil wells are typically within multi-well . As with individual wells, the production curves for oil fields vary depending on geology and how they are developed and produced. Some fields have symmetric bell-shaped production profiles, but it is more common that the period of inclining production is briefer and steeper than the subsequent decline. More than half the production usually occurs after a field has reached a peak or plateau. Production profiles of many fields show distinct peaks, but for giant oil fields, it is more common for production to reach and maintain a plateau before declining. Once a field declines, it usually follows an exponential decline. As this decline levels off, production can continue at relatively low rates. A number of oil fields in the U.S. have been producing for over 100 years.
Oil field production curves can be modified by a number of factors:
Production may be restricted by market conditions or government regulation.
A secondary recovery project, such as
or gas injection, can repressurize the field and increase the total recovery.
the field may undergo an
project, such as drilling of wells for injection of , , or . This allows more oil to be coaxed out of the rock, increasing the ultimate production of the field.
Hubbert-theory graph of multiple oil field production
Most oil is found in a small number of very large oil fields. According to Hubbert peak theory, production starts off slowly, rises faster and faster, then slows down and flattens until it reaches a peak, after which production declines. In the late stage, production often enters a period of exponential decline in which the decline becomes less and less steep. Oil production may never actually reach zero, but eventually becomes very low. Factors which can modify this curve include:
Inadequate demand for oil, which reduces steepness of the curve and pushes its peak into the future.
Sharp price increases when the production peak is reached, as production fails to meet demand. If price increases cause a sharp drop in demand, a dip in the top of the curve may occur.
Development of new drilling technology or marketing of
can reduce the steepness of the decline as more oil is produced than initially anticipated.
Historical US crude oil production showing initial similarity to a Hubbert curve
Although US proved oil reserves grew by 3.8 billion barrels in 2011, even after deducting 2.07 billion barrels of production, only 8 percent of the 5.84 billion barrels of the newly booked oil was due to new field discoveries (US EIA)
Texas oil field production decline curve
Alaska oil production decline curve
Individual oil well decline curve generated by decline curve analysis software, utilized in petroleum economics to indicate the depletion of oil & gas in a . The Y axis is a log scale. Oil production (green line), and gas production (red line).
Oil production in the , provided one excludes Alaska, began by following the theoretical Hubbert curve for a few decades but is now deviating strongly from it. U.S. oil production reached a peak in 1970 and by the mid-2000s it had fallen to 1940s levels. In 1950, the United States produced over half the world's oil, but by 2005 that proportion had dropped to about 8%. In 2005, U.S. crude oil imports peaked at a rate twice as high as since then, U.S. oil production has increased, and imports have fallen 41%.
The production peak in 1970 was predicted by one of the two projections put forward in 1956 by Hubbert. By 1972 all import quotas and controls on U.S. domestic production had been removed. Despite this, and despite the quadrupling of prices during the , the production decline was not reversed in the lower 48 states until 2009. Crude oil production has since risen sharply from 2009 through 2014, so that the rate of US oil production in October 2014 was 81% higher than the average rate in 2008.
The actual U.S. production curve deviates from Hubbert's 1956 curve in significant ways:
When oil surpluses created a glut on the market and low prices began causing demand and production curves to rise, regulatory agencies such as the
stepped in to restrain production.
The curve peaked at a higher rate and sharper point than predicted.
Production fell after 1970, but started to recover and reached a lower secondary peak in 1988. This occurred because the supergiant
field in Alaska was only discovered in 1968, and the
(TAPS) was not completed until 1977. After 1988, Alaska production peaked and total U.S. production began to decline again. By 2005, Prudhoe Bay had produced over 75% of its oil.
Production increases in the 2010s
Further information:
World oil field production curve
The 1970 production peak in the U.S. caused many people to begin to question when the world production peak would occur. The peak of world production is known as .
Further information:
in oil production could result in a worldwide oil shortage, or it could not even be noticed as demand decreases in conjunction with increased prices. While past shortages stemmed from a temporary insufficiency of supply, crossing Hubbert's Peak would mean that the production of oil would continue to decline, and that demand for these products must be reduced to meet supply. The effects of such a shortage would depend on the rate of decline and the development and adoption of effective alternatives.
The use of fossil fuels allows humans to participate in takedown, which is the consumption of energy at a greater rate than it is being replaced. The industrial economy is currently heavily dependent on oil as a fuel and chemical feedstock. For example, over 90% of transportation in the United States relies on oil.
Since the 1940s,
has dramatically increased its productivity, due largely to the use of chemical , fertilizers, and increased mechanisation. This process has been called the . The increase in food production has allowed world population to grow dramatically over the last 50 years. Pesticides rely upon oil as a critical ingredient, and fertilizers require natural gas. Farm machinery also requires oil.
Most or all of the uses of fossil fuels in agriculture can be replaced with alternatives. For example, by far the biggest fossil fuel input to agriculture is the use of natural gas as a hydrogen source for the
fertilizer-creation process. Natural gas is used simply because it is the cheapest currently availabl were that to change, other sources, such as
powered by , could be used to provide the hydrogen for creating fertilizer without relying on fossil fuels.
Oil shortages may force a move to lower input "" methods, which may be more -intensive and require a population shift from urban to rural areas, reversing the trend towards
which has predominated in
however, some organic farmers using modern organic-farming methods have reported yields as high as those available from conventional farming, but without the use of fossil-fuel-intensive artificial fertilizers or pesticides.
Another possible effect would derive from modern transportation and housing infrastructure. A large proportion of the developed world's population live in , a type of low-density settlement designed with the
in mind. A movement to deal with this problem early, called "," seeks to develop the suburbs into higher density neighborhoods and use high density, mixed-use forms for new building projects.
A more modest scenario, assuming a slower rate of depletion or a smoother transition to alternative energy sources, could still cause substantial economic hardship such as a
due to higher energy prices.[]
has also been linked to oil price spikes. However, economists disagree on the strength and causes of this association. See .
Main article:
Rising oil prices cause rising food prices in three ways. First, increased equipment fuel costs drive higher prices. Second, transportation costs increase retail prices. Third, higher oil prices are causing farmers to switch from producing food crops to producing
predicts that if fewer farmers are producing food the price of food will rise.
An alternative considered likely by some is that oil will be replaced with
during the first half of the 21st century. The replacement
would likely be . A
would then replace the current oil-based economy. Another possible replacement fuel is , which is composed of . Methane has boiling point of -161 °C, rather than hydrogen's -252.87 °C, making methane a much easier fuel to condense.
Other people consider that the whole idea of "the hydrogen economy" is flawed. Compressed hydrogen has an
of only 5.6 megajoules per liter. Robert Zubrin looks at the practical problems of using hydrogen as an energy storage medium in Energy Victory: Winning the War on Terror by Breaking Free of Oil. He considers that hydrogen is a very poor form of storage, and that ,
would be better. This point is reiterated in Beyond Oil and Gas: The Methanol Economy and in David MacKay's book described below.
is one source of sustainable energy that can produce hydrogen. Note that David MacKay has shown in his book Sustainable Energy: Without the Hot Air that geothermal can only provide a tiny fraction of the world's needs sustainably. In some areas located over
(such as Iceland), geothermal makes more sense.
energy is a source of inexhaustible energy. There is more solar energy that reaches the surface of the Earth each hour than the amount of energy consumed by the world in a year. The challenges of using the 's energy – energy which can be obtained either from
– is that the energy needs to either be (1) stored in physical form of fuel for when it can be used in the future, or (2) transported directly as electricity, through transmission lines. Neither is , as there is no control over when the sun will shine or when the wind will blow. There are, however,
plants using thermal storage that can store energy efficiently for up to 24 hours.
, a model for energy policy
Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Hubbert's Peak : The Impending World Oil Shortage, Princeton University Press (August 11, 2003), .
Richard Heinberg. The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies, New Society Press
. , Wiley (June 10, 2005),
David MacKay. Sustainable Energy - without the hot air, UIT Cambridge (May 2009),
US Energy Information Administration,
M. King Hubbert (June 1956).
(PDF). . p. 36.
Hirsch, Robert L.; Bezdek, R Wendling, Robert (February 2005).
(PDF). Science Applications International Corporation/U.S.Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory 2012.
(PDF). Eia.doe.gov.
Tim Appenzeller (June 2004). . National Geographic.
Abhijit Y. Dandekar. Petroleum reservoir rock and fluid properties. CRC Press, 2006. p. 1.
Norman J. Hyne,
(Tulsa: PennWell, 7.
Richard Miller and others, , UK Energy Research Centre, Tech Report 4, of "Review of Evidence for Global Oil depletion".
Mikael Hook, May 2009, , Licentiate Thesis, Department for Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, p.70.
history for McClintock No. 1 oil well which began first producing oil in August 1861.
Florence Field, near Canon City, Colorado, was discovered in 1876.
US Energy Information Administration, .
US Energy Information Administration, .
. Biotech-info.net. .
. December 6, 2007.
by George A Olah, Aiain Goeppert, G. K. Surya Prakash,
, chapter 16
Oil Education Television: Series of video interviews with leading international oil experts: ,
– Free for teachers.
by Dr. Michael Mills
- A visual review of production and consumption trends fo data from the British Petroleum Statistical Review.
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